ข่าวประชาสัมพันธ์เศรษฐกิจ/การเงิน

EIC expects the CLMV economy to continue robust growth in 2019 but challenges remain.

          The CLMV economy is likely to continue its brisk growth of around 6-7% in 2019, backed by exports and foreign direct investment.Effects from the global economic slowdown are expected to be limited, as exports will maintain healthy growth momentum with strong international demand for CLMV-made products under the preferential trade treatment. Meanwhile, foreign direct investment inflows are expected to continue particularly in infrastructure construction and factory expansion. Amid rising tension from the US-China trade war, Vietnam is emerging as an FDI safe haven. Many China-based manufacturers have decided on investment relocation to Vietnam to avoid import tariffs from the US and utilize the country's cost advantages and expansive trade agreement network. Seeing brighter prospects going forward, tourism would be another spearhead industry supported by the CLMV governments. China and other Asian countries have been the largest sources of foreign tourists and the number continues to rise. Nonetheless, near-term risks come from both external uncertainty and country-specific challenges. These include fluctuations in local currencies, a potential loss of EU preferential trade treatment in response to human rights abuse in Cambodia and Myanmar's Rakhine State, and a rapid credit growth in Cambodia and Vietnam.
          Cambodia's economy will maintain steady growth at 6.8% in 2019 due to strong external demand. Exports are expected to accelerate until the withdrawal of EU's EBA takes effect in August 2020. Tourism activities have grown significantly in recent years and the momentum continues, with China as the largest source of tourist arrivals. 
          Laos' economy is expected to achieve higher growth of 7% in 2019, led by electricity exports and the construction sector.However, the continued depreciation of Lao kip and a prolonged trade deficit pose key risks to economic growth and stability.
          Myanmar's economy is expected to recover to 6.8% in 2019, with robust export growth. Meanwhile, manufacturing and services are expected to grow at around 8%. The possible sanction regarding the Rakhine crisis has added risks to economic growth and development this year and the next.
          Vietnam's economy is likely to maintain steady growth at 6.5% in 2019, following 7.08% growth in 2018, thanks partly to FDI relocation from China-based manufacturers avoiding higher tariffs from the US. The key structural challenge to Vietnam is a high growth concentration in the foreign-invested sector, while technology transfers remain low.