Since a peak of 388 issuers in September 2007, the number of issuers with upgrade potential has declined sharply to this month's low of 280, the lowest since we started our report in September 2004, said an article published today by Standard & Poor's.
On the other hand, potential bond downgrades are still at their highest level in 36 months at 747 issuers.
"We expect the deceleration in potential bond upgrades this month to diminish further as factors that support upward momentum weaken," said Diane Vazza, head of Standard & Poor's Global Fixed Income Research Group, "especially given the current climate of a materialized housing recession, high inflation and energy prices, and escalating defaults."
While credit deterioration in the U.S. is largely the reason for the drop in issuers poised for upgrades, Europe, albeit to a lesser extent, has echoed this trend as well, according to the report, titled "Upgrade Potential Across Credit Grades And Sectors (Premium)." Latin America, Eastern Europe/Middle East/Africa, and Canada, on the other hand, have been relatively stable. As global credit quality deteriorates, however, this stability likely will diminish as well.
Despite weakening credit conditions, there are a few sectors especially well placed for upgrades, including metals, mining, and steel and telecommunications.
RatingsDirect is the real-time Web-based source for Standard & Poor's credit ratings, research, and risk analysis, at www.ratingsdirect.com. The standard version of this article is part of our standard Global Fixed Income Research content. The premium version contains expanded analysis of the article's most significant points, typically broken out by sector and region. Also in the premium version are in-depth charts and tables, the underlying data of which are available for download. Ratings information can also be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at www.standardandpoors.com; under Credit Ratings in the left navigation bar, select Find a Rating, then Credit Ratings Search. Members of the media may request a copy of this report by contacting the media representative provided.
Media Contact:
Mimi Barker, New York (1) 212-438-5054, mimi_barker@standardandpoors.com
Analyst Contacts:
Diane Vazza, New York (1) 212-438-2760 |
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